{"bundle_id":"84d3d27e-adc7-4846-9a24-afc582512e3b","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T16:21:41.095218+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"4000d87c-5c4c-4d5c-8b33-480a4eaf4871","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.245,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-25.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":315.3209,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.05,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":50,"signal_score":1.025,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f46d8133-56be-4afa-81cc-2499b17ceeed","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T16:22:40.034371+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","external_market_id":"2914102","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.245,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-25.5,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":315.3209,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.05,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":50,"signal_score":1.025,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.5],["2026-08-16T09:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-16T11:05:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-18T00:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-18T19:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T04:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T08:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T10:05:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.245]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-16T03:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":20.0,"observation_count":50,"points_returned":27,"probability_range_percentage_points":25.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":85.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f46d8133-56be-4afa-81cc-2499b17ceeed","title":"Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"3e8de60b27b975b44046f4d7481e5be4f4ef6335180dea1cb16e8d9c2049452d","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T16:16:53.397320+00:00","source_markets":["f46d8133-56be-4afa-81cc-2499b17ceeed"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}