{"bundle_id":"89555e1a-c52c-4fea-a3a7-b81097f6cc0e","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T10:17:25.309232+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"a3be7faf-860c-43a6-9faf-7cbecac07ab2","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.5726,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":378,"signal_score":1.5652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T10:22:56.757910+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T10:15:28.129867+00:00","external_market_id":"682705","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.275,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.5726,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":378,"signal_score":1.5652,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T19:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T02:10:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-12T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-12T16:10:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-12T23:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T06:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T13:10:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-13T21:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T04:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-14T10:10:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T18:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-14T19:10:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-15T01:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T09:10:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-15T23:10:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-16T00:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T01:10:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T15:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-16T19:10:00+00:00",0.29],["2026-08-16T22:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T05:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-17T12:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.28],["2026-08-17T19:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T02:10:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-18T10:10:00+00:00",0.275]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T10:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":3.0,"observation_count":166,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5","title":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"bc2592d87887758a247cbd8c429c7fb2b645717904f13c1934ea12181df2e4cd","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T10:15:28.129867+00:00","source_markets":["085c2979-250c-4d65-baaf-e0a2def256a5"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}