{"bundle_id":"c40ae5ce-2594-491a-9b7c-ae2cddca0d68","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T04:20:27.008274+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6b810af8-b735-438b-8e81-321dafc55eea","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6715,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.2,"delta_7d":32.4,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":45.8217,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":323,"signal_score":4.6674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T04:20:56.041906+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T04:15:45.142897+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.6715,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.2,"delta_7d":32.4,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":45.8217,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":323,"signal_score":4.6674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00",0.3475],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.3485],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.3985],["2026-08-09T13:00:00+00:00",0.408],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-09T19:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-09T20:00:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.4915],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.4875],["2026-08-10T03:05:00+00:00",0.4895],["2026-08-10T05:00:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.444],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.4485],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.48],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.478],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.4835],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.4985],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.4545],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.5635],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.5485],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.542],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.5365],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.5385],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.554],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.571],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.5675],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.627],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.6415],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.641],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.6655],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.671],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.6845],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.6875],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.678],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.674],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.6715]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-09T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":181,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":36.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"e086d494c9c865480f4c4bd1eaf9003749f38b926ebc48df73c9de030199cc8d","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T04:15:45.142897+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}