{"bundle_id":"9f836bd1-aa87-42a7-9ec3-47663da92a60","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T22:16:40.572316+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"67f701ce-3989-4d10-a266-de9dd89e46c1","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.3245,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.7,"delta_7d":2.25,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":257.0724,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":310,"signal_score":2.037,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"e300831e-7bc0-4bf6-80fb-37de1d0a0076","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T22:20:07.626968+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T22:15:40.483128+00:00","external_market_id":"679018","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.3245,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.7,"delta_7d":2.25,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":257.0724,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":310,"signal_score":2.037,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.302],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.302],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-09T12:05:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.3025],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.3025],["2026-08-09T21:00:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.3005],["2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00",0.3025],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.3025],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.3055],["2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00",0.3115],["2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00",0.3095],["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.3145],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.3145],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.3135],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.3095],["2026-08-11T14:10:00+00:00",0.3285],["2026-08-11T19:10:00+00:00",0.3285],["2026-08-12T03:10:00+00:00",0.3105],["2026-08-12T04:10:00+00:00",0.3105],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.3175],["2026-08-12T12:10:00+00:00",0.3175],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.3175],["2026-08-13T02:10:00+00:00",0.3155],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.3175],["2026-08-13T10:10:00+00:00",0.3115],["2026-08-13T15:10:00+00:00",0.3105],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.3125],["2026-08-13T20:10:00+00:00",0.3135],["2026-08-14T05:10:00+00:00",0.3135],["2026-08-14T07:10:00+00:00",0.3145],["2026-08-14T13:10:00+00:00",0.3145],["2026-08-14T16:10:00+00:00",0.3165],["2026-08-14T21:10:00+00:00",0.3165],["2026-08-15T01:10:00+00:00",0.3185],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.3175],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.3195],["2026-08-15T13:10:00+00:00",0.3195],["2026-08-15T17:10:00+00:00",0.3245],["2026-08-15T22:10:00+00:00",0.3245]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2027-04-30T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T22:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":190,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.8,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"e300831e-7bc0-4bf6-80fb-37de1d0a0076","title":"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"8e7d59d3df07b0b4b1c40a41f71b61701f66cfb0032c2b12b52bb3475ad02d83","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T22:15:40.483128+00:00","source_markets":["e300831e-7bc0-4bf6-80fb-37de1d0a0076"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}