{"bundle_id":"474185d4-4d97-486a-bdbe-31d448cbdc34","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T14:20:53.202001+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"ffe18d61-1981-4b84-8bfe-3129b4a47fb9","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.135,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.4058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":273,"signal_score":1.087,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"0f1a33a7-f028-4bb0-906a-49511f672c38","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T14:21:57.590291+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T14:15:41.513401+00:00","external_market_id":"2126461","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.135,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.4058,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":273,"signal_score":1.087,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-17T08:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-18T04:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.135]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":66.0,"observation_count":74,"points_returned":30,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"0f1a33a7-f028-4bb0-906a-49511f672c38","title":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"5d354e814783c29bf0343ef36cfb20e8d8b7da5573a65a49434128df71fd54b4","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T14:15:41.513401+00:00","source_markets":["0f1a33a7-f028-4bb0-906a-49511f672c38"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}