{"bundle_id":"0f93b3ca-69e4-4802-9062-6c8e3f76b648","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T04:24:05.704779+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"14736517-d6fe-483a-b8b1-44881d8d30a1","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7565,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.6,"delta_7d":20.3,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.8205,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":419,"signal_score":2.0674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T04:24:54.783041+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T04:17:32.526729+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.7565,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.6,"delta_7d":20.3,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":41.8205,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4348,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":419,"signal_score":2.0674,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.571],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.5675],["2026-08-13T17:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.5895],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.6265],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.614],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.639],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.647],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.6635],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.7005],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.7015],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.679],["2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00",0.6735],["2026-08-15T22:05:00+00:00",0.6735],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.6695],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.669],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.6675],["2026-08-16T19:05:00+00:00",0.6865],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.6905],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.682],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.686],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.6915],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.693],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.6915],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.708],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.7065],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.7105],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.732],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.7345],["2026-08-19T03:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.7495],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.7405],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.7505],["2026-08-19T18:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-19T20:05:00+00:00",0.7575],["2026-08-19T22:05:00+00:00",0.753],["2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00",0.7565]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":20.4,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"24da314576202908b022f3b061a68088f8f24757f2da2f7c7b2cfa6f64d76674","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T04:17:32.526729+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}