{"bundle_id":"af0e9e4a-16df-4141-b963-6c073e9a0f83","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T12:21:13.867309+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"d88b2509-5788-4e18-bad1-ca1100636dbc","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.71,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.55,"delta_7d":26.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.4882,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":379,"signal_score":4.0391,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T12:21:50.993644+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T12:16:01.906153+00:00","external_market_id":"2646914","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.71,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":2.55,"delta_7d":26.95,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":43.4882,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4783,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":379,"signal_score":4.0391,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.4405],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.4545],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.5475],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.5515],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.5485],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.5365],["2026-08-12T11:05:00+00:00",0.537],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.554],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.5535],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.5655],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.5555],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.5725],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.588],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.608],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.627],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.6185],["2026-08-14T12:05:00+00:00",0.6415],["2026-08-14T14:05:00+00:00",0.641],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.671],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.7075],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.7035],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.6845],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.6875],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.6785],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.678],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.6715],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T09:05:00+00:00",0.6685],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.6675],["2026-08-16T16:05:00+00:00",0.669],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.6905],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.682],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.6945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.6825],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.693],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.6895],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.698],["2026-08-18T10:05:00+00:00",0.7065],["2026-08-18T11:05:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.71]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":26.95,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7","title":"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"d9acb7b1939d329a15817446fbac4b15b915351bb3ca52ced4e2d31ce41e53ba","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T12:16:01.906153+00:00","source_markets":["046d9bac-d502-4fa7-a7c9-225ac76b24b7"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}