{"bundle_id":"f8cad908-f262-479e-ba3e-ee3a1348f3c3","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T00:18:10.449297+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"2530b59a-f609-44ed-99d2-64701dfe7913","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":8.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":73.989,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.4583,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":170,"signal_score":8.2291,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"df4dc635-23a5-45c1-a8ce-3d82a0ed6e25","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T00:20:34.428060+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T00:14:46.882289+00:00","external_market_id":"3372765","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.205,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":8.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":73.989,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.4583,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":170,"signal_score":8.2291,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T02:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-12T22:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-13T15:00:00+00:00",0.26],["2026-08-13T20:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-14T02:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T06:00:00+00:00",0.16],["2026-08-14T07:00:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.16],["2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-15T03:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-15T04:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-15T19:00:00+00:00",0.16],["2026-08-15T21:00:00+00:00",0.24],["2026-08-16T00:00:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.19],["2026-08-16T08:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T14:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-16T22:00:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-16T23:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-17T05:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-17T11:00:00+00:00",0.16],["2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-17T13:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-17T19:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-18T02:00:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-18T03:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-18T09:00:00+00:00",0.2],["2026-08-18T11:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-18T13:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-18T17:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-18T18:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00",0.205]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T01:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T00:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":14.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"df4dc635-23a5-45c1-a8ce-3d82a0ed6e25","title":"Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"17eb23850b42b8dd1e7aadf6fba4f54c88fbc7f869770ae3c3d36993f32e06d9","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T00:14:46.882289+00:00","source_markets":["df4dc635-23a5-45c1-a8ce-3d82a0ed6e25"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}