{"bundle_id":"2ca67f04-4374-436c-8444-fc54efcc7a27","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T04:24:55.055738+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"cd4f9067-e7c7-4df5-979c-bfd93cc95ac4","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0938,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":21.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.4844,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3462,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":2.4231,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"a4160e7f-18e4-4f7c-a6c8-560d1e633bcd","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T04:27:13.046755+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:22:24.789400+00:00","external_market_id":"3325011","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.305,"data_completeness":0.0938,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":21.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.4844,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.3462,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":2.4231,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-05T06:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-05T14:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-05T22:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-06T16:00:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-06T23:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T07:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-07T17:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-08T08:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-09T09:00:00+00:00",0.165],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-09T17:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-10T10:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-10T14:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-10T19:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T21:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.265],["2026-08-11T01:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-11T05:00:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.295],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.305],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.305]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-14T16:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":193,"points_returned":42,"probability_range_percentage_points":26.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"a4160e7f-18e4-4f7c-a6c8-560d1e633bcd","title":"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"8f7c3306319caa7abc1499aa06899708700a55c55a32906c283db8f2521b2640","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:22:24.789400+00:00","source_markets":["a4160e7f-18e4-4f7c-a6c8-560d1e633bcd"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}