{"bundle_id":"3c7a0e73-372b-4436-b741-df59c2d91939","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T04:19:20.882095+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"1c398f40-54b2-4139-84fe-f3e7c1e347d6","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.095,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.0,"delta_7d":-3.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.8213,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":51,"signal_score":4.4456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d7a85bcb-998e-4410-8f2f-b767d6a3fd43","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T04:21:12.337370+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T04:16:20.739060+00:00","external_market_id":"3240658","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.095,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-3.0,"delta_7d":-3.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.8213,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":51,"signal_score":4.4456,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T09:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T13:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.06],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-10T21:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-11T01:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T06:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.12],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.135],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.13],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.105],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.095]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":21.0,"observation_count":51,"points_returned":36,"probability_range_percentage_points":8.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":69.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d7a85bcb-998e-4410-8f2f-b767d6a3fd43","title":"Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"a6d8d03f406818016b879ae53b7ff15c2305b18f38365a16a4612848f8cd2d7c","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T04:16:20.739060+00:00","source_markets":["d7a85bcb-998e-4410-8f2f-b767d6a3fd43"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}