{"bundle_id":"3b336334-4fcb-45b7-afd9-f6805c2ade55","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T17:19:15.189350+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"88a1a4a1-a7b3-4f5a-879a-5173ef35bceb","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.5,"delta_7d":-3.2,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":12.2812,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":393,"signal_score":0.6087,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T17:21:21.124486+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T17:15:00.948979+00:00","external_market_id":"2774056","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0075,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.5,"delta_7d":-3.2,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":12.2812,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":393,"signal_score":0.6087,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.0395],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.0375],["2026-08-12T06:05:00+00:00",0.0415],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.0365],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.039],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.0325],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.03],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-13T18:05:00+00:00",0.0265],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.0245],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.0255],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.0155],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.0145],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.0165],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.0185],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.0175],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-16T14:05:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-16T21:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.0135],["2026-08-17T13:05:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-17T21:05:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-18T02:05:00+00:00",0.0125],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.0115],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.0075],["2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00",0.0075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T17:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":3.4,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"59a685b09041f80c780d7ed6ecf69811c457479e7c26a1c086827a2223fe1534","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T17:15:00.948979+00:00","source_markets":["f86ebde5-e75e-4a25-99db-0c3c20f2c82e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}