{"bundle_id":"8c25b679-f8d2-4ac5-a2c5-a004576ed4d3","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-20T00:20:52.646680+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6565a3d5-b11f-4b03-a0ec-a1e98189b633","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0175,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.4,"delta_7d":-5.25,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":25.9886,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":211,"signal_score":2.8167,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-20T00:22:29.180029+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","external_market_id":"3501952","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.0175,"data_completeness":0.0764,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.4,"delta_7d":-5.25,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":25.9886,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":211,"signal_score":2.8167,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-14T22:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-15T03:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-15T13:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-15T14:05:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.055],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.045],["2026-08-17T00:05:00+00:00",0.026],["2026-08-17T03:05:00+00:00",0.029],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.0275],["2026-08-17T09:05:00+00:00",0.0285],["2026-08-17T15:05:00+00:00",0.038],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.0345],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.037],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.035],["2026-08-18T06:05:00+00:00",0.0415],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.04],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.033],["2026-08-18T18:05:00+00:00",0.033],["2026-08-18T20:05:00+00:00",0.0305],["2026-08-19T02:05:00+00:00",0.0315],["2026-08-19T07:05:00+00:00",0.0215],["2026-08-19T14:05:00+00:00",0.0235],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.0195],["2026-08-19T17:05:00+00:00",0.0205],["2026-08-19T20:05:00+00:00",0.018],["2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00",0.0175]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-20T00:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":8.0,"observation_count":153,"points_returned":45,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.75,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":166.9},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"026999f51a39e17acbeeb18cc9435b9ca95f7cedbf2800bb7d421e76ca0dd927","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:16:22.960793+00:00","source_markets":["32ea1443-d919-4395-bb33-98e4a6bcb4d3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}