{"bundle_id":"61131e68-1e94-4a1b-990a-4d7599a20782","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T13:17:57.151497+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"e2143fc4-f2f4-424c-8e35-3b1d4d4697be","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9465,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.75,"delta_7d":66.15,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.4472,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":209,"signal_score":3.1956,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T13:20:54.856450+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T13:15:01.169051+00:00","external_market_id":"3121262","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9465,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.75,"delta_7d":66.15,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.4472,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","military-action"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":209,"signal_score":3.1956,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T15:00:00+00:00",0.285],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.62],["2026-08-11T23:00:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-12T05:00:00+00:00",0.46],["2026-08-12T08:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-12T13:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.39],["2026-08-13T03:00:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T09:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.51],["2026-08-13T15:00:00+00:00",0.425],["2026-08-13T17:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.315],["2026-08-14T01:00:00+00:00",0.335],["2026-08-14T05:00:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-14T08:00:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-14T09:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T15:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-14T22:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T06:00:00+00:00",0.42],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-15T13:00:00+00:00",0.4],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-15T20:00:00+00:00",0.36],["2026-08-16T01:00:00+00:00",0.37],["2026-08-16T03:00:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-16T09:00:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-16T11:00:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-16T17:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T19:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.9835],["2026-08-17T05:05:00+00:00",0.9755],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.936],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.9105],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.941],["2026-08-17T16:05:00+00:00",0.936],["2026-08-17T20:05:00+00:00",0.9175],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.9155],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.96],["2026-08-18T05:05:00+00:00",0.9675],["2026-08-18T12:05:00+00:00",0.941],["2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00",0.9465]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T13:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":47,"probability_range_percentage_points":69.85,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc","title":"NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"82ffee181b0c2f05ab9ade4175e3b9a5d74ab5e2297643671e749a36a4a5b40a","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T13:15:01.169051+00:00","source_markets":["5670af7d-0ef3-4bcb-b413-4a8ac0f8c2dc"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}