{"bundle_id":"e8a80e37-a021-4fb1-a08a-5178206b6828","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-19T21:19:32.085017+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"5b7a828a-2c73-4485-b7a8-429eab2d1df1","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.095,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-12.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.1136,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":421,"signal_score":2.8152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"7d00f42d-bfa3-4c68-9421-6900e1eb6e8d","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-19T21:21:21.976803+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T21:15:29.172681+00:00","external_market_id":"2696747","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.095,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.5,"delta_7d":-12.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":42.1136,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":421,"signal_score":2.8152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.195],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-14T03:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-14T18:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-15T01:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-15T08:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-15T11:05:00+00:00",0.18],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.185],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-17T18:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-18T01:05:00+00:00",0.175],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-18T16:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-18T22:05:00+00:00",0.11],["2026-08-18T23:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-19T06:05:00+00:00",0.115],["2026-08-19T12:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T13:05:00+00:00",0.125],["2026-08-19T16:05:00+00:00",0.1],["2026-08-19T21:05:00+00:00",0.095]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-19T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":168,"points_returned":34,"probability_range_percentage_points":12.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"7d00f42d-bfa3-4c68-9421-6900e1eb6e8d","title":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"9e87e2908776d16609cc186bdbb1b1c0014c3a14fcc3312f89092828f8718058","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-19T21:15:29.172681+00:00","source_markets":["7d00f42d-bfa3-4c68-9421-6900e1eb6e8d"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}