{"bundle_id":"bea82e0a-f848-4644-8a4e-7173e1ac0f3f","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T14:18:48.369357+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"3c38ff2e-1736-416c-b22e-f2b33047194c","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.945,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.4051,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":312,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T14:21:51.848917+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T14:15:41.513401+00:00","external_market_id":"2952493","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.945,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":13.4051,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1304,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":312,"signal_score":2.3152,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-14T00:05:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-14T05:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-14T08:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-14T21:05:00+00:00",0.92],["2026-08-14T22:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-15T07:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-15T12:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-16T09:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T04:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-17T06:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T12:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-17T17:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-17T19:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-17T22:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-17T23:05:00+00:00",0.94],["2026-08-18T03:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-18T08:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00",0.945]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":122,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":5.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":121.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"f5afc8e5a18e1d0756a976ef6bc43269640f20de0adb2ff6e2ddc0355d3766c9","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T14:15:41.513401+00:00","source_markets":["e6bf72e5-3f0a-4370-aae9-a928545cb5dc"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}