{"bundle_id":"8754ecd6-7fff-457d-9544-44cbf535d2bc","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T06:20:29.257731+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"b53bee3e-99e5-4353-9c41-84774ae69262","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9855,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.95,"delta_7d":9.05,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.7381,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.5652,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":262,"signal_score":3.4826,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T06:21:29.950635+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T06:16:04.802793+00:00","external_market_id":"2952488","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.9855,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.95,"delta_7d":9.05,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":2.7381,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.5652,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":262,"signal_score":3.4826,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-06T08:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-06T09:00:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-06T15:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-06T19:00:00+00:00",0.865],["2026-08-06T22:00:00+00:00",0.885],["2026-08-07T05:00:00+00:00",0.885],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.905],["2026-08-07T21:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-08T03:00:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-08T10:00:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.915],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T13:05:00+00:00",0.935],["2026-08-09T16:05:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-09T21:05:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-09T22:05:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.965],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.949],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.9525],["2026-08-10T12:05:00+00:00",0.9525],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.9595],["2026-08-10T20:05:00+00:00",0.9575],["2026-08-11T00:05:00+00:00",0.9685],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.963],["2026-08-11T08:05:00+00:00",0.9675],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.9665],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.972],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.971],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.9695],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.9465],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.966],["2026-08-12T12:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.969],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.9825],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.9855],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.983],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.9855]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-15T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T07:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":46,"probability_range_percentage_points":12.05,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4","title":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"03c0c41687dde18e7af5c03cad890da0efd1e64ce371eae5c518e44f222954b0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T06:16:04.802793+00:00","source_markets":["42b85d3b-b5a3-4fff-b6d6-ae037cd080d4"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}