{"bundle_id":"44619b89-ac5a-4bf9-8bd1-421a8fd602b5","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T04:23:54.401894+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"715beaec-00d6-4035-98bc-38b352d5637b","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.385,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-10.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.8178,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":236,"signal_score":2.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T04:27:15.247136+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:22:24.789400+00:00","external_market_id":"2252245","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.385,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.0,"delta_7d":-10.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":34.8178,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.2174,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":236,"signal_score":2.3587,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-05T06:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-05T10:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-05T13:00:00+00:00",0.455],["2026-08-05T14:00:00+00:00",0.465],["2026-08-05T20:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T03:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T11:00:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.475],["2026-08-07T03:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.485],["2026-08-07T13:00:00+00:00",0.325],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-08T21:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T10:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-09T11:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-09T17:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-10T01:05:00+00:00",0.355],["2026-08-10T06:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.365],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.375],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.435],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.415],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-11T15:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-11T20:05:00+00:00",0.405],["2026-08-12T02:05:00+00:00",0.385],["2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00",0.385]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-05T05:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T04:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":16.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382","title":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"8b13b69f6af5abaf26f3d45aee2f190d54d272fe75de643a2a6a0278fc6171a0","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T04:22:24.789400+00:00","source_markets":["632e999e-3fed-48d1-88af-88175dcf6382"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}