{"bundle_id":"d061bfa1-ea2a-4288-83a2-91ad313b0dd6","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T11:18:35.970938+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"0e8a9b5e-1be3-4f72-b765-9231199e6396","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.835,"data_completeness":0.0556,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-0.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":48.5314,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.2,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":81,"signal_score":2.35,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"09eb30ef-9478-4e9b-a53d-9828a22c3cdf","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T11:20:37.971259+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T11:14:45.152155+00:00","external_market_id":"1365861","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.835,"data_completeness":0.0556,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-0.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":48.5314,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections","\\b(?:election|president|prime minister|parliament|congress|senate|supreme court|government|regulation|law|referendum)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.2,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":81,"signal_score":2.35,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.845],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-13T11:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-13T13:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-13T14:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-13T19:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-13T23:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-14T06:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.82],["2026-08-14T11:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-14T13:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-14T16:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-14T20:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-14T22:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-15T02:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-15T13:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-15T23:05:00+00:00",0.83],["2026-08-16T00:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-16T02:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-16T04:05:00+00:00",0.84],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-16T07:05:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-16T11:05:00+00:00",0.835]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T11:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":9.0,"observation_count":81,"points_returned":36,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":88.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"09eb30ef-9478-4e9b-a53d-9828a22c3cdf","title":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"ef36a70c52048558bfd957a5a2437419a7ae1b0a6d8473955a05a4fe16b9b60e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T11:14:45.152155+00:00","source_markets":["09eb30ef-9478-4e9b-a53d-9828a22c3cdf"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}