{"bundle_id":"99418e8e-e1e1-4e21-ab01-b143f63489d0","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-12T23:19:20.015547+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"3fb09bc8-949c-4d92-9acf-85b0a71bc064","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.725,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.0296,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":56,"signal_score":7.837,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-12T23:20:40.142244+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T23:16:19.682661+00:00","external_market_id":"3491474","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.725,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-6.5,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":49.0296,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":56,"signal_score":7.837,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.735],["2026-08-10T17:05:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T19:10:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T20:10:00+00:00",0.71],["2026-08-10T22:10:00+00:00",0.715],["2026-08-10T23:10:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-11T00:10:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-11T01:10:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.675],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T07:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-11T10:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-11T11:10:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-11T14:10:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T15:10:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-11T16:05:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-11T18:05:00+00:00",0.775],["2026-08-11T20:10:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.79],["2026-08-12T03:10:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-12T04:10:00+00:00",0.78],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-12T06:10:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-12T08:05:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-12T11:10:00+00:00",0.795],["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.785],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.755],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.755],["2026-08-12T16:05:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-12T20:05:00+00:00",0.72],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.725]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":56,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":12.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":55.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"cde6acd33a7b08ef69d00aecf092d73c0d612c8c37cb1b522d95f8908c7c9529","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-12T23:16:19.682661+00:00","source_markets":["024ce364-6874-4674-91db-b8e2bd3485b3"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}