{"bundle_id":"e431903a-5811-42f2-9f70-00d86cdc2acc","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T21:19:46.520096+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"30f3322b-22a0-44b0-87f8-4ad7a68bc11b","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.505,"data_completeness":0.0243,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":6.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.113,"editorial_scope":{"category":"macro_policy","importance_score":90,"matched_terms":["federal-reserve"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Monetary, fiscal, trade, and macroeconomic changes affect broad public decisions."],"rule_id":"macro-and-monetary-policy"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":26,"signal_score":1.0834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"ece228d7-3be9-4d9d-b2c8-de9d33a373cb","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T21:20:34.328441+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T21:16:20.211224+00:00","external_market_id":"2657588","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.505,"data_completeness":0.0243,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":6.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":138.113,"editorial_scope":{"category":"macro_policy","importance_score":90,"matched_terms":["federal-reserve"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Monetary, fiscal, trade, and macroeconomic changes affect broad public decisions."],"rule_id":"macro-and-monetary-policy"},"persistence":0.1667,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":26,"signal_score":1.0834,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-12T14:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-12T19:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-12T21:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-12T22:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T01:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T02:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T03:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T05:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T06:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T08:05:00+00:00",0.44],["2026-08-13T09:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.445],["2026-08-15T15:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-15T16:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-15T17:05:00+00:00",0.495],["2026-08-15T18:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T19:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T20:05:00+00:00",0.505],["2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00",0.505]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-12T13:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T21:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":53.0,"observation_count":26,"points_returned":26,"probability_range_percentage_points":6.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":80.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"ece228d7-3be9-4d9d-b2c8-de9d33a373cb","title":"Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"c0d346cf5eb62c64d7af5c943ad14cf748f98eba88262298b57b13fa114a2266","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T21:16:20.211224+00:00","source_markets":["ece228d7-3be9-4d9d-b2c8-de9d33a373cb"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}