{"bundle_id":"0d2c81bf-1c5f-4abf-b777-69c1e8898980","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T11:17:17.919248+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"0703b87a-2390-4379-be80-03321b42e790","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.2005,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.65,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":814.5307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":248,"signal_score":3.0739,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T11:21:25.536776+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T11:15:46.604438+00:00","external_market_id":"559653","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.2005,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-1.65,"delta_7d":5.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":814.5307,"editorial_scope":{"category":"governance","importance_score":95,"matched_terms":["politics","elections"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Government, elections, and institutional power are core public-affairs signals."],"rule_id":"government-and-elections"},"persistence":0.3478,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":248,"signal_score":3.0739,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-08T20:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-09T10:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-10T13:00:00+00:00",0.1475],["2026-08-10T16:00:00+00:00",0.1475],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.1485],["2026-08-11T03:00:00+00:00",0.1535],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.1535],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-11T21:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.1505],["2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00",0.1525],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.169],["2026-08-12T16:10:00+00:00",0.1815],["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.181],["2026-08-12T23:10:00+00:00",0.1845],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.209],["2026-08-13T06:10:00+00:00",0.196],["2026-08-13T07:10:00+00:00",0.193],["2026-08-13T09:10:00+00:00",0.1905],["2026-08-13T15:10:00+00:00",0.1905],["2026-08-13T19:10:00+00:00",0.1875],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.1875],["2026-08-14T03:10:00+00:00",0.2155],["2026-08-14T05:10:00+00:00",0.2045],["2026-08-14T06:10:00+00:00",0.227],["2026-08-14T15:10:00+00:00",0.2225],["2026-08-14T19:10:00+00:00",0.2075],["2026-08-14T20:10:00+00:00",0.2055],["2026-08-15T01:10:00+00:00",0.2015],["2026-08-15T03:10:00+00:00",0.2015],["2026-08-15T06:05:00+00:00",0.2005],["2026-08-15T11:10:00+00:00",0.2005]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2028-11-07T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T11:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":170,"points_returned":39,"probability_range_percentage_points":7.95,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d","title":"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"ad6fdfcba33165b9abf03736b2f96204097fa67557fdf76c4006de872d24999e","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T11:15:46.604438+00:00","source_markets":["f240fd2e-6504-4504-9fff-cf464ccf6b7d"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}