{"bundle_id":"246a2bf3-9d4c-4327-9c8d-a912f198266e","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-13T16:18:02.902758+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6e687f34-5bfb-461f-ba1c-ae4484822794","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-16.5,"delta_7d":-56.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.3218,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":212,"signal_score":17.9457,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-13T16:19:29.125473+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T16:15:33.763116+00:00","external_market_id":"3348048","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.365,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-16.5,"delta_7d":-56.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":18.3218,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3913,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":212,"signal_score":17.9457,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00",0.925],["2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00",0.89],["2026-08-07T01:00:00+00:00",0.89],["2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00",0.895],["2026-08-07T08:00:00+00:00",0.89],["2026-08-07T10:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-07T16:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-07T19:00:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-07T23:00:00+00:00",0.86],["2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.855],["2026-08-08T13:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.875],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.835],["2026-08-09T01:00:00+00:00",0.87],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-09T04:00:00+00:00",0.725],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.77],["2026-08-09T14:00:00+00:00",0.765],["2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00",0.74],["2026-08-09T19:00:00+00:00",0.68],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.585],["2026-08-10T02:00:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00",0.635],["2026-08-10T07:05:00+00:00",0.625],["2026-08-10T11:05:00+00:00",0.65],["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.66],["2026-08-10T19:05:00+00:00",0.575],["2026-08-10T23:05:00+00:00",0.61],["2026-08-11T02:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-11T09:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-11T12:05:00+00:00",0.605],["2026-08-11T14:05:00+00:00",0.705],["2026-08-11T19:05:00+00:00",0.685],["2026-08-12T01:05:00+00:00",0.555],["2026-08-12T03:05:00+00:00",0.565],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.59],["2026-08-12T10:05:00+00:00",0.58],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.53],["2026-08-12T23:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T04:05:00+00:00",0.56],["2026-08-13T07:05:00+00:00",0.395],["2026-08-13T10:05:00+00:00",0.345],["2026-08-13T15:05:00+00:00",0.41],["2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00",0.365]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-06T17:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-13T16:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":171,"points_returned":48,"probability_range_percentage_points":58.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e","title":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"38ec45e41bf61e739bd4c0c1b9f0ee669f359f692b9593413b62b4a7616f02e1","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-13T16:15:33.763116+00:00","source_markets":["d1cdbd0b-665a-4105-b0f3-19fe92a5fa3e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}