{"bundle_id":"af4b9910-81dc-4c72-9c5c-12a74a8a5783","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-18T15:20:31.716621+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"6c19c911-32ec-4d19-86c6-97f3a1761428","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.965,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.05,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.3641,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":177,"signal_score":2.4666,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"d01bd050-5134-47ce-9e9c-95088d264a14","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-18T15:21:29.773075+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T15:15:39.580321+00:00","external_market_id":"1373746","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.965,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.05,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":134.3641,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.3333,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":177,"signal_score":2.4666,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-11T17:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-12T07:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-12T22:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-13T05:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-13T19:00:00+00:00",0.945],["2026-08-14T03:00:00+00:00",0.95],["2026-08-14T10:00:00+00:00",0.95],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-14T17:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.96],["2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00",0.9645],["2026-08-15T07:00:00+00:00",0.9585],["2026-08-15T10:00:00+00:00",0.956],["2026-08-15T14:00:00+00:00",0.961],["2026-08-15T15:00:00+00:00",0.961],["2026-08-15T17:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-16T01:00:00+00:00",0.9555],["2026-08-16T04:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-16T05:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-16T06:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-16T13:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-16T16:00:00+00:00",0.9555],["2026-08-16T20:00:00+00:00",0.9555],["2026-08-16T23:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-17T03:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-17T09:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T10:00:00+00:00",0.9545],["2026-08-17T13:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T18:00:00+00:00",0.955],["2026-08-17T21:00:00+00:00",0.9605],["2026-08-18T06:00:00+00:00",0.9275],["2026-08-18T07:00:00+00:00",0.9685],["2026-08-18T07:05:00+00:00",0.9625],["2026-08-18T09:05:00+00:00",0.9685],["2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00",0.965]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-18T15:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":40,"probability_range_percentage_points":4.1,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"d01bd050-5134-47ce-9e9c-95088d264a14","title":"Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"faff67a673b9c83a8aae096cf2d2886e5e253054f1b699eb377ca9e49c7fcfa7","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-18T15:15:39.580321+00:00","source_markets":["d01bd050-5134-47ce-9e9c-95088d264a14"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}