{"bundle_id":"89c4646e-2b0b-4062-9b39-05ce0d26d886","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-17T14:17:11.346158+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"4c32c97b-f96d-489e-9592-d6e19ce8ab6a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.65,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.4068,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":338,"signal_score":1.9869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"b9796388-29f7-4885-a3a8-ba66e9f6e34c","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-17T14:20:01.263622+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T14:14:09.454666+00:00","external_market_id":"1469737","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.825,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":0.65,"delta_7d":2.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":135.4068,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":338,"signal_score":1.9869,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-10T16:05:00+00:00",0.805],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-10T22:05:00+00:00",0.8095],["2026-08-11T03:05:00+00:00",0.808],["2026-08-11T04:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-11T05:05:00+00:00",0.8055],["2026-08-11T11:05:00+00:00",0.8055],["2026-08-11T13:05:00+00:00",0.8115],["2026-08-11T17:05:00+00:00",0.811],["2026-08-11T21:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-11T23:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-12T00:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-12T05:05:00+00:00",0.8095],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.808],["2026-08-12T15:05:00+00:00",0.808],["2026-08-12T17:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-12T18:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-13T00:05:00+00:00",0.81],["2026-08-13T20:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-13T21:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-13T22:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-14T04:05:00+00:00",0.8085],["2026-08-14T09:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-14T10:05:00+00:00",0.8105],["2026-08-14T15:05:00+00:00",0.8195],["2026-08-14T17:05:00+00:00",0.8195],["2026-08-14T19:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-14T23:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-15T09:05:00+00:00",0.817],["2026-08-16T01:05:00+00:00",0.814],["2026-08-16T05:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-16T06:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-16T12:05:00+00:00",0.8185],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.8235],["2026-08-16T22:05:00+00:00",0.8255],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.8225],["2026-08-17T01:05:00+00:00",0.8225],["2026-08-17T02:05:00+00:00",0.822],["2026-08-17T07:05:00+00:00",0.822],["2026-08-17T11:05:00+00:00",0.825],["2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00",0.825]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T15:05:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-17T14:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":13.0,"observation_count":147,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.05,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.0},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"b9796388-29f7-4885-a3a8-ba66e9f6e34c","title":"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"bc6fc926e2db7f9e5b8ce5ab634c3231122a1d0c529f52df3830266a2907110a","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-17T14:14:09.454666+00:00","source_markets":["b9796388-29f7-4885-a3a8-ba66e9f6e34c"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}