{"bundle_id":"3d3622be-936c-44c8-90fe-534ad58d3a52","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T15:16:26.869805+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"58accec9-1665-4d5b-b911-8876097e12eb","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.8515,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.7,"delta_7d":-0.15,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"macro_policy","importance_score":90,"matched_terms":["economy"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Monetary, fiscal, trade, and macroeconomic changes affect broad public decisions."],"rule_id":"macro-and-monetary-policy"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":298,"signal_score":0.787,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"5ae036fe-30da-46bb-8539-77a8e5f25c32","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:19:26.026847+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T15:14:59.003102+00:00","external_market_id":"616902","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.8515,"data_completeness":0.0833,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-0.7,"delta_7d":-0.15,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.3646,"editorial_scope":{"category":"macro_policy","importance_score":90,"matched_terms":["economy"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Monetary, fiscal, trade, and macroeconomic changes affect broad public decisions."],"rule_id":"macro-and-monetary-policy"},"persistence":0.1739,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":298,"signal_score":0.787,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00",0.853],["2026-08-08T17:00:00+00:00",0.8535],["2026-08-08T22:00:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-09T08:00:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00",0.8565],["2026-08-09T16:00:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-09T23:00:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-10T17:00:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-11T00:10:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-11T02:10:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-11T04:10:00+00:00",0.857],["2026-08-11T15:10:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-11T16:10:00+00:00",0.8585],["2026-08-11T18:10:00+00:00",0.8555],["2026-08-12T00:10:00+00:00",0.8575],["2026-08-12T06:10:00+00:00",0.859],["2026-08-12T07:05:00+00:00",0.8535],["2026-08-12T09:05:00+00:00",0.853],["2026-08-12T13:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-12T17:10:00+00:00",0.8555],["2026-08-12T18:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-13T01:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-13T08:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-13T16:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-14T00:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-14T08:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-14T17:10:00+00:00",0.8595],["2026-08-14T20:10:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-14T23:10:00+00:00",0.8525],["2026-08-15T01:10:00+00:00",0.8515],["2026-08-15T07:10:00+00:00",0.8515],["2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00",0.8515]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T16:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T15:10:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.1,"observation_count":180,"points_returned":37,"probability_range_percentage_points":0.8,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.2},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"5ae036fe-30da-46bb-8539-77a8e5f25c32","title":"Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"0eadd017b1f2e2a6965ce4a4ec7c048885266906049de7b88d6bdebb8dcce3ed","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T15:14:59.003102+00:00","source_markets":["5ae036fe-30da-46bb-8539-77a8e5f25c32"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}