{"bundle_id":"14fa7635-1170-4550-8f57-852975d13a14","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-15T05:15:43.582395+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"49eb3e7a-2f13-478c-8586-0941bd66e467","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.7814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.1,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":2.05,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"3cef5fdb-c3d5-4575-a9f6-24655e674db1","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-15T05:20:32.156319+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","external_market_id":"687642","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.075,"data_completeness":0.0729,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":-2.0,"delta_7d":-1.0,"direction":-1,"distance_to_resolution_days":137.7814,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.1,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":false,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":214,"signal_score":2.05,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-08T07:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-08T11:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-08T14:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T15:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T19:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-08T23:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T03:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T07:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T11:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T15:00:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T18:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T20:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-09T22:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T00:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T02:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T04:05:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T06:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-10T08:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T10:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T14:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-10T18:05:00+00:00",0.07],["2026-08-14T09:10:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-14T12:10:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-14T14:10:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T16:10:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-14T20:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-15T00:10:00+00:00",0.075],["2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00",0.075]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"gapped","first_observed_at":"2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-15T05:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":87.1,"observation_count":95,"points_returned":29,"probability_range_percentage_points":2.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"3cef5fdb-c3d5-4575-a9f6-24655e674db1","title":"China x Japan military clash before 2027?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"20bfc57db31b390f38f0ce6fc8301d4226747346d23d8df963fcf556b9d9a2ba","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-15T05:14:48.738125+00:00","source_markets":["3cef5fdb-c3d5-4575-a9f6-24655e674db1"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}