{"bundle_id":"1b140d02-fb6d-474e-a93c-414db79a051a","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-16T23:18:10.538841+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"b0644a12-7876-498e-9c6d-b051fab0ef0a","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.155,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":76.0305,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":true,"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":188,"signal_score":8.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"ebc1516b-6225-40b3-bda1-42ffb90d31d2","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-16T23:20:23.598918+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T23:15:04.048101+00:00","external_market_id":"2853114","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.155,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":7.0,"delta_7d":1.0,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":76.0305,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics","\\b(?:war|invasion|ceasefire|military|missile|sanction|attack|target|occupation|nuclear)\\b"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.25,"publication_tier":"featured","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":188,"signal_score":8.375,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T01:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T03:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-10T08:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-10T14:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T15:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-10T16:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-10T22:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-10T23:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-11T08:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.15],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-12T04:00:00+00:00",0.14],["2026-08-12T11:00:00+00:00",0.145],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00",0.065],["2026-08-12T21:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T02:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T16:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-13T23:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T06:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T13:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T21:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-14T23:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T04:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-15T11:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-15T12:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T18:00:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-15T19:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-16T02:00:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-16T04:00:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-16T08:05:00+00:00",0.095],["2026-08-16T13:05:00+00:00",0.08],["2026-08-16T15:05:00+00:00",0.085],["2026-08-16T17:05:00+00:00",0.155],["2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00",0.155]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"complete","first_observed_at":"2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-16T23:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":169,"points_returned":43,"probability_range_percentage_points":9.0,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":167.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"ebc1516b-6225-40b3-bda1-42ffb90d31d2","title":"IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"93bf601d35b62741b23f47d50663ab8ba3e101a30d0a2450e9fe79c52bb2a5a6","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-16T23:15:04.048101+00:00","source_markets":["ebc1516b-6225-40b3-bda1-42ffb90d31d2"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}