{"bundle_id":"b9ec86bc-b73b-4777-82b9-7a1d8749afbd","calculations":[{"calculated_at":"2026-08-14T02:19:35.490826+00:00","calculation_type":"candidate_detection","calculation_version":"production-1.0.0","id":"d498d1fc-bb13-434c-8a85-225ce391e184","input_snapshot":{},"output":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":77.9056,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"eligible":false,"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":66,"signal_score":2.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"subject_id":"198158b5-7d52-4571-aa65-c25c2b6b981e","subject_type":"source_market"}],"contract":"open-signal.public-evidence/v1","counter_evidence":[],"created_at":"2026-08-14T02:21:02.287301+00:00","known_limitations":[],"primary_evidence":[{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T02:15:53.387789+00:00","external_market_id":"3501950","metric":{"acceleration":0.0,"current_probability":0.215,"data_completeness":0.0868,"data_quality":"ok","delta_1h":0.0,"delta_24h":1.0,"delta_7d":-8.5,"direction":1,"distance_to_resolution_days":77.9056,"editorial_scope":{"category":"geopolitics_security","importance_score":100,"matched_terms":["geopolitics"],"maximum_surface":"hero","policy_version":"1.0.0","reasons":["Armed conflict, national security, and international order have broad public consequences."],"rule_id":"conflict-and-security"},"persistence":0.125,"publication_tier":"scanner","reversal":true,"scanner_eligible":true,"series_size":66,"signal_score":2.3125,"thresholds":{"min_delta_24h_pp":3.0,"scanner_min_delta_24h_pp":0.5,"scanner_spread_multiplier":1.0,"spread_multiplier":2.0}},"points":[["2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00",0.3],["2026-08-11T11:00:00+00:00",0.25],["2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-11T13:00:00+00:00",0.275],["2026-08-11T14:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T16:00:00+00:00",0.255],["2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-11T19:00:00+00:00",0.235],["2026-08-11T20:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-11T22:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T03:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T06:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T09:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T10:00:00+00:00",0.245],["2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00",0.23],["2026-08-12T14:00:00+00:00",0.225],["2026-08-12T17:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-12T20:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-12T23:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T01:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T04:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-13T07:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-13T08:00:00+00:00",0.22],["2026-08-13T10:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-13T11:00:00+00:00",0.21],["2026-08-13T13:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T15:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-13T21:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00",0.205],["2026-08-14T01:00:00+00:00",0.215],["2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00",0.215]],"resolution_deadline_at":"2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00","series_quality":{"coverage_status":"partial_window","first_observed_at":"2026-08-11T10:00:00+00:00","last_observed_at":"2026-08-14T02:05:00+00:00","max_gap_hours":1.0,"observation_count":66,"points_returned":35,"probability_range_percentage_points":9.5,"requested_window_hours":168,"span_hours":64.1},"source":"Polymarket Gamma","source_market_id":"198158b5-7d52-4571-aa65-c25c2b6b981e","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?","type":"observed_market_series"}],"snapshot_hash":"5162ec3c31bb0edb37257345ecb4f3ca30663ec10d6725e4b4bb715387d5efb1","source_coverage":{"captured_at":"2026-08-14T02:15:53.387789+00:00","source_markets":["198158b5-7d52-4571-aa65-c25c2b6b981e"],"source_name":"Polymarket Gamma","sources":1},"supporting_evidence":[],"unresolved_questions":[]}